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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş finished level at 3-3 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.33 xG and Beşiktaş 1.13 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Trabzonspor beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Beşiktaş outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.26 / defence 0.78 against Beşiktaş attack 1.12 / defence 0.85, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 37% | Draw 35% | Beşiktaş 28%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 49%, Beşiktaş 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Trabzonspor's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Beşiktaş's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 1.67 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights