Sivasspor vs Samsunspor – Match Report

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Stalemate at Sivasspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 17, as Sivasspor and Samsunspor drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.56 xG and Samsunspor 1.51 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sivasspor fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Samsunspor landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.95 / defence 1.07 against Samsunspor attack 1.19 / defence 0.99, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 38% | Draw 27% | Samsunspor 35%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 53%, Samsunspor 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sivasspor's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Samsunspor's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.34 PPG, Samsunspor 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Samsunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights