🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Sivasspor at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sivasspor vs Konyaspor encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 25 as Sivasspor welcome Konyaspor to BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 February 2025 at 10:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Sivasspor stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sivasspor's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Sivasspor are significantly better at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.

Konyaspor — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Konyaspor away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sivasspor 0.50 PPG, Konyaspor 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Sivasspor: 4 wins from 7 previous clashes against 1 for Konyaspor, with 2 draws across those contests.

The last 7 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The historical record gives Sivasspor a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Data

Sivasspor trading profile (61 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Konyaspor trading profile (61 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 57% versus Konyaspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 51% | Konyaspor 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.69 xG and Konyaspor 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.983 / defence 1.089 | Konyaspor attack 0.869 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.618 / away 1.215. Data: 61 Sivasspor games / 61 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sivasspor 49% | Draw 26% | Konyaspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Konyaspor 4.00. Sivasspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Sivasspor as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sivasspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sivasspor 70% | Konyaspor 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights