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Dominant Sivasspor run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Kayserispor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sivasspor beat Kayserispor 5-2 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 21, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.36 xG and Kayserispor 0.93 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Sivasspor beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kayserispor outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.84 / defence 0.98 against Kayserispor attack 0.81 / defence 0.99, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 44% | Draw 33% | Kayserispor 23%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 52%, Kayserispor 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sivasspor's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Kayserispor's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.30 PPG, Kayserispor 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sivasspor win broke the near-deadlock. Sivasspor (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kayserispor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights