Sivasspor vs Galatasaray – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sivasspor's attack at 0.91x the league average against Galatasaray's defence at 0.70x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Galatasaray's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Galatasaray Win
22%
4.62
27%
3.75
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.69
1.68
Galatasaray xG
4.62
22%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
19%
5.36
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
4%
24.77
19%
5.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Galatasaray?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Galatasaray expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Sivasspor and 1.68 for Galatasaray, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Galatasaray?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.