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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Fenerbahçe cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sivasspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fenerbahçe beat Sivasspor 1-3 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.57 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.97 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Fenerbahçe outscored their 1.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 1.22 / defence 1.06 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.57 / defence 0.82, drawn from 67/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 31% | Draw 22% | Fenerbahçe 47%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 52%, Fenerbahçe 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sivasspor's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.53 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sivasspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights