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Stalemate at Sivasspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 35, as Sivasspor and Bodrum FK drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.57 xG and Bodrum FK 0.86 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sivasspor fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Bodrum FK landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 1.14 / defence 1.02 against Bodrum FK attack 0.69 / defence 0.86, drawn from 71/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 54% | Draw 25% | Bodrum FK 21%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 59%, Bodrum FK 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sivasspor's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bodrum FK's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.03 PPG, Bodrum FK 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Bodrum FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights