🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Sivasspor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Antalyaspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sivasspor beat Antalyaspor 2-0 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 2.20 xG and Antalyaspor 0.95 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Antalyaspor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 1.14 / defence 1.13 against Antalyaspor attack 0.72 / defence 1.20, drawn from 69/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 66% | Draw 19% | Antalyaspor 15%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 53%, Antalyaspor 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sivasspor's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Antalyaspor's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.24 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sivasspor win broke the near-deadlock. Sivasspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights