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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Samsunspor host Trabzonspor at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Samsunspor have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Samsunspor have posted 3W 5D 2L at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Trabzonspor — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Trabzonspor have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Trabzonspor's 1.90 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Samsunspor's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Samsunspor, 1 for Trabzonspor and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Samsunspor trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).

Trabzonspor trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 48% versus Trabzonspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 46% | Trabzonspor 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.11 xG and Trabzonspor 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.775 / defence 0.851 | Trabzonspor attack 1.261 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.282. Samsunspor's attack strength of 0.775 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Trabzonspor have an above-average attack strength of 1.261 — the away xG of 1.38 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Samsunspor games / 56 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Samsunspor 26% | Draw 34% | Trabzonspor 39%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 3.85 | Draw 2.94 | Trabzonspor 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Trabzonspor as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Samsunspor 50% | Trabzonspor 70% BTTS from recent games.

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