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Shock result as Rizespor defy the odds to beat Samsunspor 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rizespor beat Samsunspor 2-3 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 2.07 xG and Rizespor 0.97 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Rizespor outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 1.11 / defence 0.85 against Rizespor attack 0.95 / defence 1.16, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 62% | Draw 22% | Rizespor 16%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Rizespor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 44%, Rizespor 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Samsunspor's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Rizespor's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Samsunspor 1.46 PPG, Rizespor 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock. Samsunspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights