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Poisson model rates Samsunspor at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Samsunspor vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Konyaspor make the trip to Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu to face Samsunspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Form

Samsunspor (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Samsunspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Samsunspor's home record at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Konyaspor have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Konyaspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Konyaspor have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Samsunspor, 1.70 for Konyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Samsunspor lead 2W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Samsunspor — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Konyaspor — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Samsunspor 62% and Konyaspor 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 56% | Konyaspor 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.80 xG and Konyaspor 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 1.066 / defence 0.946 | Konyaspor attack 1.052 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Samsunspor games / 34 Konyaspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Samsunspor 51% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 22%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Konyaspor 4.55. Samsunspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Samsunspor at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Samsunspor if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Samsunspor 50% | Konyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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