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Stalemate at Samsunspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Regular Season - 19, as Samsunspor and Kocaelispor drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.23 xG and Kocaelispor 0.89 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Samsunspor fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Kocaelispor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.86 / defence 0.92 against Kocaelispor attack 0.74 / defence 1.09, drawn from 54/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 40% | Draw 37% | Kocaelispor 23%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 39%, Kocaelispor 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Samsunspor's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Kocaelispor's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Samsunspor 1.44 PPG, Kocaelispor 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Samsunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Kocaelispor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights