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Stalemate at Samsunspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Samsunspor and Gaziantep FK finished level at 0-0 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.13 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.14 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Samsunspor fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Gaziantep FK landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.70 / defence 0.98 against Gaziantep FK attack 0.94 / defence 1.20, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 31% | Draw 37% | Gaziantep FK 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 48%, Gaziantep FK 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Samsunspor's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Gaziantep FK's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Samsunspor 1.61 PPG, Gaziantep FK 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Samsunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights