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Dominant Samsunspor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Göztepe.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Samsunspor beat Göztepe 3-0 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Regular Season - 34, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.33 xG and Göztepe 1.05 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Samsunspor beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Göztepe landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 1.04 / defence 0.97 against Göztepe attack 0.95 / defence 0.85, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 40% | Draw 34% | Göztepe 26%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 54%, Göztepe 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Samsunspor's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Göztepe's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Samsunspor 1.62 PPG, Göztepe 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Samsunspor win broke the near-deadlock. Samsunspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Göztepe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights