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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Samsunspor edge out Fatih Karagümrük 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Samsunspor beat Fatih Karagümrük 3-2 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Regular Season - 6, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.45 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.03 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Samsunspor beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fatih Karagümrük outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.95 / defence 0.98 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.88 / defence 1.19, drawn from 41/5 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 45% | Draw 31% | Fatih Karagümrük 24%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 40%, Fatih Karagümrük 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Samsunspor's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Samsunspor scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fatih Karagümrük scored 2 against a 0.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights