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Shock result as Samsunspor defy the odds to beat Beşiktaş 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Samsunspor beat Beşiktaş 2-1 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 0.94 xG and Beşiktaş 1.44 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Samsunspor beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.81 / defence 1.02 against Beşiktaş attack 1.18 / defence 0.83, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 22% | Draw 32% | Beşiktaş 46%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Samsunspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 51%, Beşiktaş 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Samsunspor's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Beşiktaş's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Samsunspor 1.58 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Samsunspor win broke the near-deadlock. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights