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Başakşehir cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Samsunspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Başakşehir beat Samsunspor 0-2 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.10 xG and Başakşehir 1.20 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Samsunspor fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.93 / defence 0.85 against Başakşehir attack 1.08 / defence 0.95, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 29% | Draw 36% | Başakşehir 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Başakşehir win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 51%, Başakşehir 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Samsunspor's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Başakşehir's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Samsunspor 1.75 PPG, Başakşehir 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Samsunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Başakşehir (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights