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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Samsunspor and Alanyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Regular Season - 14, as Samsunspor and Alanyaspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.29 xG and Alanyaspor 1.06 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.94 / defence 0.80 against Alanyaspor attack 0.97 / defence 1.09, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 40% | Draw 32% | Alanyaspor 28%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 51%, Alanyaspor 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Samsunspor's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Alanyaspor's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights