Rizespor vs Konyaspor – Match Report

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Rizespor and Konyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rizespor and Konyaspor finished level at 1-1 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.79 xG and Konyaspor 0.98 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 1.05 / defence 0.95 against Konyaspor attack 0.86 / defence 1.04, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rizespor 55% | Draw 25% | Konyaspor 20%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 56%, Konyaspor 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rizespor's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Konyaspor's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.33 PPG, Konyaspor 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights