Rizespor vs Konyaspor – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 1.05x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (0.86x) against Rizespor's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 52/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
55%
1.80
25%
4.00
20%
5.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.77
0.98
Konyaspor xG
1.80
55%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
5.12
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
17%
5.97
Win to Nil
21%
4.80
3%
30.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.0 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Rizespor and 0.98 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Konyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.