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Shock result as Kayserispor defy the odds to beat Rizespor 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kayserispor beat Rizespor 0-1 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 14, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.68 xG and Kayserispor 1.47 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Rizespor fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.94 / defence 1.16 against Kayserispor attack 0.95 / defence 1.39, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rizespor 40% | Draw 28% | Kayserispor 32%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Kayserispor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 57%, Kayserispor 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rizespor's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Kayserispor's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.29 PPG, Kayserispor 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kayserispor win broke the near-deadlock. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward. Kayserispor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights