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Dominant Rizespor run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Hatayspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rizespor beat Hatayspor 5-2 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 38, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 2.52 xG and Hatayspor 1.49 xG, a combined 4.00. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Rizespor beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 1.22 / defence 1.06 against Hatayspor attack 1.09 / defence 1.30, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rizespor 60% | Draw 19% | Hatayspor 21%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 56%, Hatayspor 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rizespor's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Hatayspor's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Rizespor arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.92. Form held, and they took the win. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hatayspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights