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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Rizespor edge out Gaziantep FK 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rizespor beat Gaziantep FK 2-1 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.80 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.25 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 1.09 / defence 1.00 against Gaziantep FK attack 1.06 / defence 1.16, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rizespor 48% | Draw 28% | Gaziantep FK 24%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 56%, Gaziantep FK 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rizespor's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Gaziantep FK's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.28 PPG, Gaziantep FK 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights