🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Rizespor run riot with a 6-3 hammering of Göztepe.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rizespor beat Göztepe 6-3 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 36, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.57 xG and Göztepe 0.93 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 6-3 for 9 actual goals. Rizespor beat their projection by 4.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Göztepe outscored their 0.93 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.94 / defence 0.91 against Göztepe attack 0.81 / defence 1.06, drawn from 71/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rizespor 52% | Draw 25% | Göztepe 22%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 54%, Göztepe 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rizespor's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Göztepe's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.21 PPG, Göztepe 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Göztepe (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 6 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights