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Dominant Rizespor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Eyüpspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rizespor beat Eyüpspor 3-0 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.00 xG and Eyüpspor 1.07 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Rizespor beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Eyüpspor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.85 / defence 1.14 against Eyüpspor attack 0.71 / defence 0.94, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rizespor 29% | Draw 38% | Eyüpspor 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Rizespor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 55%, Eyüpspor 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rizespor's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Eyüpspor's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.25 PPG, Eyüpspor 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights