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Bodrum FK cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Rizespor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bodrum FK beat Rizespor 0-2 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.72 xG and Bodrum FK 0.76 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Rizespor fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Bodrum FK outscored their 0.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 1.11 / defence 1.05 against Bodrum FK attack 0.61 / defence 0.95, drawn from 64/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rizespor 60% | Draw 24% | Bodrum FK 16%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Bodrum FK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 65%, Bodrum FK 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rizespor's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bodrum FK's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.27 PPG, Bodrum FK 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bodrum FK win broke the near-deadlock. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Bodrum FK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights