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Rizespor and Beşiktaş share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 34, as Rizespor and Beşiktaş drew 2-2 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.34 xG and Beşiktaş 1.45 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 1.13 / defence 1.06 against Beşiktaş attack 1.21 / defence 0.79, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rizespor 32% | Draw 31% | Beşiktaş 37%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 58%, Beşiktaş 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rizespor's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Beşiktaş's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights