🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Rizespor and Beşiktaş share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 18, as Rizespor and Beşiktaş drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.27 xG and Beşiktaş 1.03 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.98 / defence 0.96 against Beşiktaş attack 0.90 / defence 0.79, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rizespor 39% | Draw 33% | Beşiktaş 28%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 56%, Beşiktaş 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rizespor's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Beşiktaş's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.30 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights