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Poisson rates Rizespor at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rizespor vs Antalyaspor encounter.

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Analysis

Antalyaspor make the trip to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to face Rizespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 10:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Rizespor have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Rizespor's home record at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Antalyaspor (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Rizespor against 1.00 for Antalyaspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Rizespor lead 4W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2025, ended 5–2 with Rizespor winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Antalyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 57% versus Antalyaspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 57% | Antalyaspor 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.12 xG and Antalyaspor 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.933 / defence 1.060 | Antalyaspor attack 0.598 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.224. Data: 60 Rizespor games / 60 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Rizespor 40% | Draw 39% | Antalyaspor 21%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.50 | Draw 2.56 | Antalyaspor 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 39% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Rizespor as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 39% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.90 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 40% | Antalyaspor 30% BTTS from recent games.

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