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Rizespor and Alanyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 19, as Rizespor and Alanyaspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.24 xG and Alanyaspor 1.17 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.99 / defence 1.04 against Alanyaspor attack 0.87 / defence 0.97, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rizespor 34% | Draw 35% | Alanyaspor 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 56%, Alanyaspor 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rizespor's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Alanyaspor's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.24 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights