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Rizespor cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Alanyaspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rizespor beat Alanyaspor 3-1 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.44 xG and Alanyaspor 0.89 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Rizespor beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 1.02 / defence 1.04 against Alanyaspor attack 0.71 / defence 0.88, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rizespor 49% | Draw 29% | Alanyaspor 22%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 58%, Alanyaspor 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rizespor's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Alanyaspor's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.29 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights