Rizespor 1-3 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Adana Demirspor at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rizespor vs Adana Demirspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Çaykur Didi Stadyumu plays host to Rizespor versus Adana Demirspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 6 February 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rizespor have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rizespor have posted 6W 1D 3L at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Adana Demirspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Adana Demirspor have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Rizespor, 1.80 for Adana Demirspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Rizespor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Adana Demirspor in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Rizespor lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 1–3 with Adana Demirspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Adana Demirspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 44% versus Adana Demirspor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 56% | Adana Demirspor 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.31 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.947 / defence 1.185 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.045 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.088. Data: 23 Rizespor games / 23 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 36% | Draw 26% | Adana Demirspor 38%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Adana Demirspor 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Adana Demirspor are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Adana Demirspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 60% | Adana Demirspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 36% | Draw 26% | Adana Demirspor 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Rizespor 1.31 / Adana Demirspor 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.947 / def 1.185 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.045 / def 1.182 | league avg home 1.171 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Adana Demirspor xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Adana Demirspor?
Rizespor 1 - 3 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Rizespor vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Rizespor vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 36% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Rizespor and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Adana Demirspor?
Record (1 meetings): Rizespor 0W | Draws 0 | Adana Demirspor 1W.
What form are Rizespor and Adana Demirspor in?
Rizespor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rizespor's attack rating (0.95) and Adana Demirspor's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Adana Demirspor's attack (1.04x) against Rizespor's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
36%
2.77
26%
3.84
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.66
1.35
Adana Demirspor xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
9%
10.65
10%
9.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.4 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.35 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rizespor's recent record stands at 6W 4D 13L from 23 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Adana Demirspor, meanwhile, have gone 10W 7D 6L across 23 games — 1.61 PPG, with D-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Adana Demirspor by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rizespor heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Rizespor have managed 6W 2D 4L from 12 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.96 PPG overall — Rizespor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Adana Demirspor's away record stands at 4W 4D 4L across 12 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rizespor are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.52 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 6W 4D 13L in their last 23 games (0.96 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 10W 7D 6L in their last 23 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Rizespor's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.67 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Rizespor go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Rizespor
0
Draws
3
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Adana Demirspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 3, Adana Demirspor have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when Rizespor 3-2 Adana Demirspor.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 50%, Adana Demirspor 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Rizespor) and 58% (Adana Demirspor).
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Adana Demirspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Rizespor's games and 75% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rizespor vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Rizespor's recent games and 58% of Adana Demirspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Adana Demirspor cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Rizespor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Adana Demirspor beat Rizespor 1-3 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.31 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.35 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Adana Demirspor outscored their 1.35 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.95 / defence 1.19 against Adana Demirspor attack 1.04 / defence 1.18, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 36% | Draw 26% | Adana Demirspor 38%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 56%, Adana Demirspor 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (23 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (23 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Adana Demirspor arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points. Rizespor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.