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Prediction vindicated as Rizespor edge out Adana Demirspor 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rizespor beat Adana Demirspor 3-2 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 21, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.75 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.04 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Rizespor beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Adana Demirspor outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.94 / defence 0.96 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.91 / defence 1.12, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rizespor 52% | Draw 28% | Adana Demirspor 20%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 54%, Adana Demirspor 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rizespor's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Adana Demirspor's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.30 PPG, Adana Demirspor 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights