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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 34% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 31 as Konyaspor welcome Trabzonspor to Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 27 April 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Konyaspor have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Konyaspor's home record at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.

Trabzonspor — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Konyaspor) versus 2.30 (Trabzonspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Trabzonspor have the better historical record — 5 wins from 9 previous contests against 2 for Konyaspor.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 1–3 with Trabzonspor winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Trabzonspor have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Patterns

Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Konyaspor 62% and Trabzonspor 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 50% | Trabzonspor 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.15 xG and Trabzonspor 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.919 / defence 0.811 | Trabzonspor attack 1.309 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.131. Trabzonspor have an above-average attack strength of 1.309 — the away xG of 1.20 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 66 Konyaspor games / 66 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Konyaspor 32% | Draw 34% | Trabzonspor 34%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 3.12 | Draw 2.94 | Trabzonspor 2.94. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 50% | Trabzonspor 80% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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