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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Konyaspor and Kayserispor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Konyaspor and Kayserispor finished level at 1-1 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.39 xG and Kayserispor 1.27 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.93 / defence 1.05 against Kayserispor attack 0.92 / defence 1.18, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 36% | Draw 33% | Kayserispor 31%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 54%, Kayserispor 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Konyaspor's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Kayserispor's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.19 PPG, Kayserispor 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights