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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa finished level at 1-1 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.26 xG and Kasımpaşa 0.90 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.91 / defence 0.86 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.86 / defence 1.04, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 41% | Draw 37% | Kasımpaşa 23%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 50%, Kasımpaşa 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Konyaspor's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.15 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights