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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, as Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa drew 3-3 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.63 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.48 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Konyaspor beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kasımpaşa outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.94 / defence 1.11 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.15 / defence 1.09, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 39% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 33%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 41%, Kasımpaşa 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Konyaspor's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.09 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights