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Prediction vindicated as Konyaspor edge out Gaziantep FK 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Konyaspor beat Gaziantep FK 1-0 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.83 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.27 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Konyaspor fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Gaziantep FK landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.96 / defence 0.96 against Gaziantep FK attack 1.12 / defence 1.16, drawn from 65/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 50% | Draw 24% | Gaziantep FK 26%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 42%, Gaziantep FK 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Konyaspor's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Gaziantep FK's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.11 PPG, Gaziantep FK 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Konyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights