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Poisson model favours Galatasaray (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Konyaspor face Galatasaray.

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Full Analysis

Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium plays host to Konyaspor versus Galatasaray in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Konyaspor have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 0W 6D 4L. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Konyaspor have posted 1W 5D 4L at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Galatasaray (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.60 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Galatasaray, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Galatasaray have posted 8W 1D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

On a straight form reading, Galatasaray are the stronger side — 2.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head ledger leans to Galatasaray, who have claimed 7 wins from 9 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 0 draws.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2025, ended 1–3 with Galatasaray winning.

It is worth noting that Galatasaray have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 7 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading

Konyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Galatasaray half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Konyaspor 66% and Galatasaray 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 52% | Galatasaray 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 0.78 xG and Galatasaray 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.795 / defence 0.942 | Galatasaray attack 1.397 / defence 0.707. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.317. Konyaspor's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Galatasaray's defence strength of 0.707 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Galatasaray have an above-average attack strength of 1.397 — the away xG of 1.73 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 Konyaspor games / 58 Galatasaray games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Konyaspor 13% | Draw 30% | Galatasaray 57%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 7.69 | Draw 3.33 | Galatasaray 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Galatasaray (57%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Galatasaray at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Konyaspor 70% | Galatasaray 40%.

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