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Prediction vindicated as Konyaspor edge out Göztepe 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Konyaspor beat Göztepe 1-0 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.59 xG and Göztepe 0.89 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Göztepe landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.93 / defence 0.86 against Göztepe attack 0.86 / defence 1.07, drawn from 67/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 53% | Draw 26% | Göztepe 21%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 43%, Göztepe 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Konyaspor's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Göztepe's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.11 PPG, Göztepe 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Konyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Göztepe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights