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Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Konyaspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fenerbahçe beat Konyaspor 0-3 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.41 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.29 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Konyaspor fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Fenerbahçe outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.98 / defence 0.82 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.42 / defence 0.98, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 36% | Draw 33% | Fenerbahçe 31%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Fenerbahçe win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 52%, Fenerbahçe 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Konyaspor's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights