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Dominant Konyaspor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Fatih Karagümrük.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Konyaspor beat Fatih Karagümrük 3-0 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.58 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.74 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Konyaspor beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.85 / defence 0.86 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.74 / defence 1.32, drawn from 64/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 55% | Draw 30% | Fatih Karagümrük 15%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 50%, Fatih Karagümrük 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Konyaspor's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Konyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.11 PPG against 0.71. Form held, and they took the win. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights