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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 16 as Konyaspor welcome Eyüpspor to Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 December 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Konyaspor have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Konyaspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Konyaspor have posted 4W 5D 1L at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Eyüpspor stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Eyüpspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Eyüpspor have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Konyaspor carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Konyaspor have won 2, Eyüpspor 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 65% versus Eyüpspor 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 56% | Eyüpspor 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.54 xG and Eyüpspor 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.927 / defence 0.966 | Eyüpspor attack 1.007 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Konyaspor games / 34 Eyüpspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Konyaspor 45% | Draw 29% | Eyüpspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Eyüpspor 4.00. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Konyaspor at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 50% | Eyüpspor 60% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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