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Prediction vindicated as Konyaspor edge out Başakşehir 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Konyaspor beat Başakşehir 2-1 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.46 xG and Başakşehir 1.24 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 1.10 / defence 0.93 against Başakşehir attack 1.06 / defence 1.00, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 40% | Draw 30% | Başakşehir 30%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 54%, Başakşehir 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Konyaspor's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Başakşehir's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.29 PPG, Başakşehir 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights