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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Konyaspor and Antalyaspor meet at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Monday 24 November 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Current Form

Konyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium, Konyaspor have gone 5W 0D 5L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Antalyaspor have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Antalyaspor away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Konyaspor, 0.70 for Antalyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Konyaspor, 2 for Antalyaspor and 5 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2025, ended 0–1 with Antalyaspor winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Konyaspor — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).

Antalyaspor — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 65% versus Antalyaspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 54% | Antalyaspor 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.38 xG and Antalyaspor 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 1.062 / defence 1.230 | Antalyaspor attack 0.878 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.332. Data: 48 Konyaspor games / 48 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Konyaspor 34% | Draw 30% | Antalyaspor 36%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Antalyaspor 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Antalyaspor as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 70% | Antalyaspor 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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