Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor – Match Report

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Konyaspor and Antalyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 15, as Konyaspor and Antalyaspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.65 xG and Antalyaspor 1.11 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.91 / defence 0.94 against Antalyaspor attack 0.91 / defence 1.15, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 49% | Draw 28% | Antalyaspor 24%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 41%, Antalyaspor 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Konyaspor's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Antalyaspor's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.14 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights