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Shock result as Alanyaspor defy the odds to beat Konyaspor 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alanyaspor beat Konyaspor 1-2 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.72 xG and Alanyaspor 1.00 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Alanyaspor outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 1.16 / defence 0.82 against Alanyaspor attack 0.93 / defence 1.10, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 53% | Draw 26% | Alanyaspor 21%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Alanyaspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 51%, Alanyaspor 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Konyaspor's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Alanyaspor's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.36 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Konyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights