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Shock result as Alanyaspor defy the odds to beat Konyaspor 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alanyaspor beat Konyaspor 1-2 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 37, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.59 xG and Alanyaspor 0.95 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Alanyaspor outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.96 / defence 0.83 against Alanyaspor attack 0.91 / defence 1.03, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 52% | Draw 26% | Alanyaspor 22%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Alanyaspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 42%, Alanyaspor 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Konyaspor's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Alanyaspor's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.21 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Konyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights