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Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Kocaelispor 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Trabzonspor beat Kocaelispor 1-2 at Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu, Regular Season - 18, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kocaelispor 1.28 xG and Trabzonspor 1.32 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kocaelispor attack 0.84 / defence 0.76 against Trabzonspor attack 1.36 / defence 1.15, drawn from 17/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kocaelispor 32% | Draw 34% | Trabzonspor 34%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 34%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kocaelispor 24%, Trabzonspor 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kocaelispor's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Trabzonspor's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.35. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kocaelispor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights