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Shock result as Konyaspor defy the odds to beat Kocaelispor 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Konyaspor beat Kocaelispor 1-2 at Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kocaelispor 1.32 xG and Konyaspor 0.82 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Konyaspor outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kocaelispor attack 0.81 / defence 0.83 against Konyaspor attack 0.80 / defence 1.23, drawn from 25/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kocaelispor 45% | Draw 36% | Konyaspor 19%, with Kocaelispor to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Konyaspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kocaelispor 28%, Konyaspor 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kocaelispor's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Konyaspor's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kocaelispor 1.32 PPG, Konyaspor 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Kocaelispor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights